Some of you may know that I teach at a medical school. I have been keeping very close track of the recent studies on Covid-19. I know people are getting impatient and are tired of being shut into their houses, and I know that this takes an economic toll (it has affected my family directly in a pretty big way).
Here are the things you need to know before
making a decision about whether to play in clubs that are opening again.
1. Odds of being
infected by someone depends on how far you are away from them and ALSO
how long a time you spend there. It also depends on how much of the
virus someone near you might be spreading, which is obviously something
you can't know and can't ascertain in any way. We know now that peak contagiousness occurs up to 3 days BEFORE symptoms appear and there are many silent spreaders.
2.
How sick you get may depend in part on the initial virus "dose" you
get, which determines the number of cells that are infected, which
affects the likelihood that the immune system wins or loses. Points 1
and 2 are why healthcare workers on average appear to be getting more
severe illness.
3. Coronaviruses enter the
air (as an aerosol) and float around for quite a long time. A person
doesn't need to cough or sneeze, although those things probably expel
more virus. They just need to breathe (and see points 1 and 2).
4.
You can be infected through your eyes. The virus can adhere to the
moist surface of your eyes and get washed from there to your nose (the
upper respiratory tract) via a drainage canal into an area that is rich
in the ACE-2 protein that is the receptor for the virus.
5. There is the issue of the ball too.
6.
The virus is unpredictable. Young fit people are succumbing to it,
clearly not at the same rate as older people but nevertheless it
happens. This thing can cause weird effects not seen earlier, like
small blood clots that result in (a) strokes and (b) "silent" hypoxemias
where blood O2 levels get very low even though the lungs seem to be
ventilating ok. If you live with oolder relatives you need to be especially careful.
7. With experience hospitals
are getting better at dealing with this (they know more about not making
things worse and they know more about dangerous things to be watching
for). But there are NO proven therapies as of today.
8. Most epidemiologists are predicting a summer resurgence in many areas. Now is not a good time to let down your guard. Infections and deaths are not declining in many areas where clubs are opening. Your risk is partly determined by infection rates where you live, so keep track
9. Monitor your own health!
After various requests I am temporarily sticking this topic.
Edited by Baal - 05/23/2020 at 12:37pm